Note that the following analysis is based on the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) data. Notably, it derives from ICAOs monthly Air Transport Monthly Monitor (recent issues can be accessed here). The most recent data in the November 2021 report is for September 2021. Furthermore, developments in most metrics are compared to 2019 levels, which is before the pandemic started.

The Slow Recovery Continues

After the deepest fall seen in April 2020 passenger air travel has been recovering for almost one year and a half. Although uneven at times – interrupted by several bouts of the COVID-19 new strains in February 2021 and in August 2021 – the recuperation of the airline industry has been quite clear. It can be discerned in both major metrics which has been growing fairly steadily since April 2020:

• passenger traffic;
• aircraft capacity available for passengers.

Aircraft Loading Growth Uneven

The developments in terms of the load factor have been less positive. Earlier there were fears about returning aircraft back available for travel. Nevertheless, as said above, it has been making quite steady progress. At the same time, demand from the public has not been growing as quickly as it had been forecast by the airlines before. So in recent months – August and September 2021 – the load factor has been falling. However, the decline has been insignificant, and this trend can be expected to reverse and loading to return to growth soon.

Only National Travel Oriented Airports Have Recovered

In terms of airport traffic (only the top world airports were analyzed):

• plane departures growth vs. 2019 could only be seen only in two US airports in Phoenix and Salt Lake City – basically, air travel only at the national level;
• in terms of passengers, all the major airports have shown a decline and have still not recovered from the pandemic influence.

In conclusion, the major trends are showing there the airline industry is slowly but steadily recovering with mild interruptions from the new COVID-19 strains. Passenger air travel is expected to reach the pre-pandemic levels sometime in the middle of next of next year in all passenger traffic, aircraft capacity, and the load factor.

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This movement is getting approved by governments around the world, especially in Europe and USA, as they’re approving numerous laws to reduce CO2 emissions. Not just that, manufacturers like Tesla who started from nothing a few years back are now one of the most valued companies in the industry. Tesla’s market value has skyrocketed over the past few years and it easily beats the likes of Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Jeep, BMW, and the Volkswagen Group.

Aforementioned companies are also shifting to electric vehicles. Manufacturers like Jeep have already told that they will electrify their entire SUV lineup with electric power by 2022. Another example – Ford Motor Company, one of the iconic and popular American manufacturers has already started introducing various models which are all-electric vehicles.

The main concern over buying an electric vehicle was regarding the range and reliability. But in the past few years, manufacturers have started to pack quite big batteries in their cars giving them a great amount of range. This combined with the vast amounts of charging stations all over the United States means that unlike before owning an electric vehicle now will be a fuss-free experience. Reliability concerns have also have reduced and in fact, it is the electric vehicles that have the least moving parts thus ultimately reducing the number of possible issues.

However, shift to electric cars won’t be easy. Taking Britain as ane example, there were 2.3 million new cars registered in Britain in 2019, but only 37,850 were battery powered – or 1.6%. Still, sales have risen rapidly this year, partly due to strict new emissions rules in the EU which have forced manufacturers to invest billions in new zero-emission models. As a result electric cars have become better, but they remain expensive to make and rely heavily on incentives to sell.

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